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Mounting apprehensions have emerged about the possibility of warfare among Horn of Africa neighbors, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as aggressive rhetoric has intensified in the past few weeks.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for entry to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has sparked a fierce rhetorical conflict.

The Ethiopian leader initially stated publicly in 2023 that his country's sea access was an existential matter, comments that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Ties between the both governments have regularly been difficult. After a decades-long struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a extensive Red Sea coastline, formally separated from Ethiopia in 1993, rendering it cut off from the sea.

Five years later, a military clash broke out in which more than 100,000 people died.

Current Remarks from Ethiopian Officials

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief the army commander have openly claimed sovereignty of Eritrean southern port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the border - and suggested the desire to take it by force.

On 1 September, Abiy said the country's "error" of losing entry to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrea secession would be "corrected tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that the port was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be restored "through military action".

Eritrean Answer to the Threats

In the face of ongoing challenges from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been restricted to short statements on social media from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for access to the Red Sea describing it as "risky" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a policy of claiming back lost territory.

Government spokespeople warned on 16 September that attempts to legitimise "blatant hostility" would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Activities on the Border

So far, there are few indications of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the both nations.

However, in Ethiopia, government media has shown completion events of many recruits at multiple army bases.

The director of personnel division of the defense force, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, stated recently in an discussion that the military was in a "strong stance" as "tens of thousands of recruits" were enlisting, which he said was "a signal to our adversaries".

Historical Roots of the Dispute

For more than half a century from 1890, the territory was administered by Italian rulers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then administered by the UK forces before becoming a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in 1962 the ruler cancelled this system and Eritrea became totally absorbed into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long civil war ensued, ending with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Independence was then approved by voters in a referendum in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the governments in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they clashed over the specific demarcation of their mutual frontier, resulting in hostilities in 1998.

Though this ended in a peace deal in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the neighbors continued at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The both leaders endorsed a declaration that the hostilities was concluded – a action that earned Abiy the international recognition.

The both administrations were then allies in the country's 2020-2022 armed struggle in Tigray.

Yet ties have later worsened once more.