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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It often serves as a kind of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic improvement is handed the prize. However, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

But the current race is profoundly different. The group of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners falling away and recent also-rans ascending in unison. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against five other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still